Discuss DTV: SatelliteGuys Forum DTV USA Forum AVS Forum Digital Home Forum

   RabbitEars.Info   
Sitemap
  

What We Know About the Incentive Auction

(Updated 2/8/16 with an article about Chattanooga.)
(Updated 2/24/16 with more on Puerto Rico.)
(Updated 3/25/16 with WNYE.)

As many of you know, the FCC's Incentive Auction application window closed on Tuesday, January 12. This means that stations are now under a "quiet period" during which they cannot discuss bids or bidding strategy. This also means that almost any information that is going to be made public before the process is complete is probably already public now. As a service to those who are interested, I've attempted to compile as much information as I can find about who is in and who is out.

Please note that while I am officially an FCC employee, I have no access to any inside information on this subject, and even if I did, I could not share it. All data below was compiled entirely in my personal time and capacity, is in no way intended to reflect the views of the FCC or any of its Commissioners. It is either based on public information which is linked, or is strictly my own speculation based on years of industry-watching.

Now, to the educational part.

First, we have a collection of PBS networks covering multiple markets announcing they will not be participating in the auction.

UNC-TV: http://www.heraldsun.com/news/unc-t...
NET: http://www.1011now.com/home/headlin...
OETA: http://www.enidnews.com/news/state/...

Next, the networks.

CBS in: http://seekingalpha.com/news/296972...
NBC in: http://www.broadcastingcable.com/ne...
Fox in: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...

I suspect that what you're going to see here are places where CBS, NBC, or Fox own two stations, one will go in. NBC, in particular, seems to have tested things out in San Francisco, where they're already running dual HD on both signals. It's very easy to picture them selling WWSI, for instance, and putting 62-1 onto the WCAU signal which will be much better than the WWSI signal could have ever been.

Tribune/Univision/ION/Fox: http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/...
And again later: http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/...

This is interesting. For those who have been paying attention, you've probably already noticed that Univision has dual HD up on most or all of its signals in duopoly markets. I would guess that was done in anticipation of the auction. But it's also possible to imagine other channel sharing arrangements. Looking at this group, one could imagine Fox keeping its station in Detroit, for example, since it is on VHF, and instead looking to share with some of the UHF stations which will be more in demand. In other markets, stations owned by someone other than Fox might have the more ideal signal to keep versus selling.

Here's an article talking about many of the companies involved:

http://www.investors.com/news/techn...

Now, the station owners.

Sinclair in, limited: http://www.fiercewireless.com/story...
Sinclair again: http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/...
Media-General in: http://www.broadcastingcable.com/ne...
Nexstar out?: http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/...
Scripps out?: http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/...

What you're seeing here is probably limited participation. For example, Media-General is probably looking carefully at its duopolies in very valuable markets like Hartford or Buffalo. It will also probably look at selling off the pile of Class A licenses it holds. Sinclair, in some cases, runs more than two stations, or Nexstar has two but no other subchannels. I suspect they won't participate heavily, but will do so in strategic locations, where prices are high enough.

Then, there are the speculators. (Titan, OTA, LocusPoint, LocalMedia TV, etc.)

OTA: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/compu...

I only include the one article, but I'm sure others could be found. Don't think the stations owned by speculators are guaranteed to go off the air either. There are likely to be cases where the station owned by a speculator is less valuable than some other station in the market, and that station may sell in the auction to channel share on the speculator's facility.

Now, let's go market by market. If there's nothing to say, I will include no commentary. Please note that unless there's something specific to a station owned by a speculator, I have not included it here. This list could quickly grow out of hand if I included every station owned by a speculator.

I am not certain that I have everything here. If you have a link to an article I don't have, please let me know and I will add it.

1) New York
WEDW in: http://current.org/2014/08/conn-net...
NJN in: http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/...
WNYE out: http://www.tvnewscheck.com/link/934...

I don't think there's much to comment on here. The article about WEDW is pretty clear, I think, while NJTV uses four transmitters to serve a state that could probably be covered with just two (WNJB, properly relocated, and WNJS).

2) Los Angeles
KCET/KLCS share: http://www.kcet.org/about/pressroom...
KVCR in: http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...
KDOC share: http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebat...

The KDOC article is interesting, using the phrase "major network affiliate." Given NBC, Fox, and CBS all have duopolies, and VHF like KABC probably won't be too valuable to the auction, my guess would be Tribune or one of the other PBS stations (KOCE or KVCR). KVCR, in particular, could move itself to Mount Wilson or Mount Harvard by channel sharing with someone who's already there, while collecting a chunk of change as the most valuable station in Los Angeles due to its odd location, relatively speaking. But we simply don't know.

3) Chicago
WYCC out: http://www.robertfeder.com/2015/11/... WYCC in, after all: http://www.robertfeder.com/2016/03/...

4) Philadelphia
WYBE considering: http://www.mindtv.org/2014/help-det...
WFMZ sharing with KJWP: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

WYBE's article just says they're looking into it. No information is available.

The sale agreement for KJWP is far more interesting. I've seen several people who noticed the sale but nobody, apparently, read the agreement. This is not a simple case of WFMZ seeking a duopoly, and certainly not for only $25,000. It spells out that WFMZ will go into the auction to go off the air, and KJWP will not, and KJWP's current owner will get a piece. The size of that piece is redacted, but definitely a piece. I would guess that the end result will be a channel share, but with WFMZ having two must-carry feeds instead of one.

6) Houston
KTBU/WSBS-CD in: http://www.tvnewscheck.com/playout/...

7) San Francisco
KCSM in: http://archives.smdailyjournal.com/...

9) Boston
WLVI in: https://www.bostonglobe.com/busines...

10) Washington
WHUT in: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/b...

11) Sacramento
K20JX-D in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

12) Detroit
WADL in: http://www.crainsdetroit.com/articl...
W33BY-D/WBNF-CD/WMJF-CD in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

14) Minneapolis
Pioneer out: http://www.pioneer.org/news/pioneer...

16) Tampa
WUSF considering: http://www.tbo.com/news/education/j...

17) Miami
See KTBU Houston
WJAN-CD/PR4 in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

18) Puerto Rico
WTCV/WVEO/WVOZ in: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds...
WIPR/WIPM in: http://www.network54.com/Forum/4318.../http://www.network54.com/Forum/4318...
WQHA maybe in? http://www.network54.com/Forum/4318...
WMEI/WOST maybe in? http://www.network54.com/Forum/4318...
See WJAN Miami

Truth be told, I think Puerto Rico is going to have a lot of takers. Outside of Telemundo, Univision, and WAPA, I'm not sure too many of the stations in Puerto Rico make much money. For any owner of a station that has lost money since coming on, the auction must be tempting.

20) Orlando
WEFS in/share on WDSC: http://m.news-journalonline.com/art...

This one sort of slipped through the cracks. I had missed it when it came out in November 2015 and tripped over it by accident while researching for this article. WEFS will sell in the auction and share on WDSC. Given that both air Florida Channel right now, and Classic Arts Showcase is just a handful of hours per week on a continuous loop, my guess is that they'll use some auction money for a high-dollar encoder and keep most of the valuable programming they have now (main feeds in HD, plus MHz, Florida Channel, and maybe NASA).

22) San Diego
KSKT-CD in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

25) Indianapolis
WIPB in: http://www.thestarpress.com/story/n...
WFYI not sharing: http://www.ibj.com/articles/56192-t...

During the DTV transition, WIPB's fallback, had channel 23 been denied, was to use channel 7. Not that I think it's necessarily relevant, just interesting.

29) Baltimore
See W33BY-D Detroit

WMJF-CD is the station here.

34) Nashville
WJFB in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

44) Grand Rapids
WGVU/WGVK out and WZZM out: http://mibiz.com/item/23226-fcc-auc...

VHF broadcasters are only needed if someone wants to move from UHF to VHF, so it's not entirely surprising that the three VHF stations noted here are not in the auction.

48) Austin
KXLK-CD in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

54) Buffalo
See W33BY-D Detroit

WBNF-CD is the station here. I'll be very interested to see if it sells at any price given its proximity to CHCH-DT.

55) Scranton
WVIA in (VHF): http://www.wsj.com/articles/fcc-auc...

66) Flint
WDCQ out: http://www.mlive.com/news/bay-city/...
WCMU in: https://www.cmich.edu/news/article/...

76) Des Moines
KDMI in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

77) Chattanooga
WRCB out/WTCI in: http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/...

78) Toledo
WGTE in: http://www.toledoblade.com/TV-Radio...

83) Springfield
KSPR in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

This is a station in an agreement with Schurz, and Schurz is being bought by Gray. While the participation is interesting and there's much speculation about what would happen to ABC and CW, I note that KSPR is in a pretty rural area. I wonder if the station will even ultimately be bought and, if it is not, what would happen to it. Would Gray turn the license in or try to sell it?

89) Champaign
WEIU in: http://www.dailyeasternnews.com/201...

111) Lansing
WKAR out: http://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2016/m...

114) Augusta
WAGT in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

The other station involved in the Schurz purchase. This station will likely be turned in if it is not sold. Gray also bought WBEK-CD here and has filed an STA to run it on WAGT's channel at 15 kW. Presumably, that is where NBC and CW will end up. This will look a lot like the Wausau WFXS sale.

127) Columbus
WLGA in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

135) Monroe
KMYA in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

136) Palm Springs
KMIR agreement: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

Most of the Palm Springs stations have little value due to the fact that they're already co-channel with Los Angeles stations. KMIR here is the exception, and was sold to OTA quite some time ago now. It was one of the first stations to have an auction contingency clause in the sale agreement. My guess is that this station will go off the air and NBC will move to KPSE-LD, then OTA will resell the station to someone else.

181) Lima
Block in maybe: http://www.wsj.com/articles/fcc-auc...
WBGU in: http://www.bgnews.com/campus/board-...
WTLW in: https://limaohio.com/news/160232/wt...

It's interesting that Lima has enough articles to cover all of its eligible TV stations.

184) Grand Island
KHGI/KWNB/KHGI-CD not in: http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws...

Sinclair's buying these stations, and they're not in high demand areas, either.

193) Marquette
WNMU in: http://www.miningjournal.net/page/c...

207) Watertown
WPBS/WNPI out: http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/...

Again, if you have a link to a public article about a station or stations that I have not included here, I would love a link so I can include it.

Comments

1. On Friday, January 29 2016, 19:05 by MARIO

Fortunately, El Paso, Tx is out of the incentive auction, becuse the FCC said it isn't necesary.

So, we can to be quiet, and continue watching all the main OTA networks.

2. On Friday, January 29 2016, 23:40 by Morgan Wick

That almost all the largest station owners, including three of the big four networks, are participating to some extent, and the reasons why, is perhaps the clearest example yet of how loose duopoly rules, the failure to enforce what rules exist, and the failure to maintain a market that makes true diversity possible, have hurt broadcasting. Sinclair and Nexstar get to make their virtual duopolies legal by technically turning in their shell companies' licenses and running multiple top-tier stations on a single license. Ugh.

3. On Sunday, January 31 2016, 07:01 by Neal

Excellent article -- thanks.
I have posted a link to it over on Telecom-Digest.

4. On Sunday, January 31 2016, 13:30 by Tripelo

Trip, very interesting, thanks for providing all the information.

5. On Monday, February 8 2016, 17:23 by Nicholas Lemonakis

Thanks for the info Trip and very informative.